Chelsea, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

397
FXUS64 KBMX 191116
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
616 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025

Low clouds are expected again this morning, with perhaps patchy fog
in a few wind-sheltered locations along rivers or that received
rainfall yesterday. Rain chances will return by the mid-morning
hours, mainly across the northern half of the area. By afternoon,
rain and thunderstorm coverage should continue to be greatest over
the northern half, with less activity across southern areas. Highs
will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with more rain expected across
the north, with low to mid 90s across the south.

Rain chances will be a tad lower on Sunday afternoon, but will
continue to be highest across the northern half. Sunday highs are
currently forecast to be a degree or two higher than today, with
heat index values generally topping out in the 100-105F range.

12

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025

Continued similar thinking for next week as the last few forecast
cycles. A ridge will attempt to build in across the South as the
remnants of Invest 93L drift into Texas and/or Oklahoma. A trough
will pass through the Northeast states Monday and Tuesday, with the
ridge attempting to build eastward behind it. Rain and storm chances
remain in place each afternoon, mainly across the southern and
eastern counties, as the ridge will battle to take hold in the
region. The latest GFS and ECMWF deterministic center the ridge
roughly over Arkansas through much of the week, while Central
Alabama slowly heats back up day by day. By Tuesday and Wednesday,
we`ll see highs firmly back into the mid 90s in many areas, and we
will likely need to consider resuming the issuance of Heat
Advisories by Tuesday if not sooner.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025

Shortwave moving through right now across the northwest, with
showers and an occasional storm. Guidance is very different on the
progression today. Will go with a trend toward the guidance that
actually had the precipitation this morning and adjusted TAFs
based on this. Overall should be VFR with brief bouts of MVFR in
showers.

NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until
further notice due to comms issues.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Min RH values will fall to around 50-60% each afternoon through mid
week. Some spots will dip into the 40s from Sunday onward. Winds
will stay generally under 10 mph for most of the next week, varying
direction with each day. Rain and storm chances remain in the
forecast each afternoon, however, high pressure building in by early
to mid week may diminish these rain chances as time draws closer.
Thus, potential exists for sparse rainfall coverage mid to late
week, despite the current forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     92  71  92  71 /  60  20  40  10
Anniston    90  72  90  73 /  50  20  40  10
Birmingham  91  73  92  74 /  50  20  40  10
Tuscaloosa  91  74  93  74 /  50  20  30  10
Calera      90  74  91  74 /  40  20  30  10
Auburn      91  74  91  75 /  30  20  20  10
Montgomery  93  74  94  75 /  30  10  20  10
Troy        93  72  94  73 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...16